One 100,000 sqft box, 1,001 entrepreneur positions, seven revenue lines, a landlord paid by revenue share and no floor guarantee. This page reads the linked workbook for an LP: what the box earns, what it returns, what the Pressure Test still holds open, and how many boxes stand between the first one and a unicorn.
Download the model (Excel, 1,774 formulas)Download the Space & Capacity ModelThe box is built from A Level Alliances' own Space & Capacity Model: 100K sqft leased, 40K public, 20K mezzanine, 12K of the parking obligation as open market — 92K programmable, one third to anchors, the rest to 1,001 positions. Prices for the daily table ($130), the CPG test table ($200) and the outdoor stall ($80) are ALA's Costco/CDS-anchored bands; every other tariff is an estimate flagged as such in the workbook.
In the realistic case the box reaches $16.3M gross revenue and $7.2M venue NOI (44% margin) at run-rate, pays the landlord 25% of NOI — 1.5× what a Class B/C shell would earn on a lease — and leaves $4.6M of OpCo EBITDA before the 40/40/20 split. On $6.2M of CapEx that is a 34% IRR with no exit and 48% with an operator-multiple exit in year seven.
The pessimistic case is not a soft version of the same story. It stacks the open challenges of the Pressure Test — thin table demand, a sponsor royalty on gross with no cap, a landlord taking 30% — and the OpCo never turns cash-positive. It is the case the Legal Ally must design the documents against.
Seven lines, one floor. The Arcade is built from its 124 positions rather than a membership count, so no square foot is sold twice; membership is Master only. Landlord and OpCo lines sit below venue NOI. Columns are the three scenarios; every number links to the workbook.
| Line | Pessimistic | Realistic | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Open Market & Market Hall | $3.5M | $7.4M | $10.1M |
| 02 Enterprise Arcade | $353K | $656K | $946K |
| 03 The Stage | $333K | $1.3M | $3.3M |
| 04 Live Commerce Center | $753K | $2.4M | $5.3M |
| 05 Back of House | $302K | $635K | $1.0M |
| 06 Media — PingPod | $400K | $800K | $1.1M |
| 07 Membership — Master | $1.1M | $2.3M | $4.3M |
| Anchors — 8 brands + 6 street-food | $600K | $833K | $1.1M |
| Gross revenue | $7.3M | $16.3M | $27.1M |
| Gross revenue per sqft GLA | $73 | $163 | $271 |
| Cost of delivery | ($2.8M) | ($5.7M) | ($8.5M) |
| Building opex | ($840K) | ($780K) | ($660K) |
| Other fixed opex | ($1.6M) | ($1.4M) | ($1.1M) |
| Marketing / demand engine | ($582K) | ($978K) | ($1.4M) |
| Sponsor royalty | ($728K) | ($201K) | $0 |
| Venue NOI | $772K | $7.2M | $15.5M |
| NOI margin | 11% | 44% | 57% |
| Landlord revenue share (30% / 25% / 20% of NOI, no floor) | ($232K) | ($1.8M) | ($3.1M) |
| Landlord income vs Class B/C lease alternative | 0.2× | 1.5× | 2.1× |
| OpCo overhead / G&A | ($1.0M) | ($850K) | ($750K) |
| OpCo EBITDA (pre-tax, pre 40/40/20) | ($459K) | $4.6M | $11.6M |
Project level, unlevered, pre-tax, seven-year horizon, 15% discount rate. "No exit" is the pure operating case and the one the proof-of-concept should be judged on; "with exit" applies an operator multiple (5× / 7× / 9×) to year-7 cash EBITDA, the CBRE–Industrious precedent.
| Measure | Pessimistic | Realistic | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial CapEx (Y0) | ($8.5M) | ($6.2M) | ($5.1M) |
| IRR — 7 years, no exit | n/a (never recovers) | 34% | 133% |
| IRR — with exit at Y7 | n/a | 48% | 139% |
| NPV @ 15% — no exit | ($14.5M) | $5.6M | $34.4M |
| NPV @ 15% — with exit | ($15.7M) | $17.9M | $77.0M |
| ROI, 7-year cumulative cash ÷ CapEx — no exit | -104% | 364% | 1390% |
| ROI incl. exit (MOIC − 1) | -142% | 886% | 3616% |
| Payback year (no exit) | beyond Y7 | Y4 | Y2 |
The Pressure Test (pressure-test.fifthwallpe.com, Appendix I) listed the challenges an LP's own diligence would raise and the answers proposed. This is where each one stands inside the model.
| Item | What the Pressure Test raised | Where it stands in the model | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| C2 / C18 | Table demand is untested; challenges compound when stacked | Optimistic uses ALA's 55% occupancy; realistic haircuts to 40%, pessimistic to 25% and stacks every other open item | open — first box decides |
| C8 | No second box before four quarters of data | Rollout schedules open one box in year 1 and one to three in year 2 in every scenario | encoded |
| C11 / 5-C | 12,000 Arcade members exceed the physical ceiling | Arcade rebuilt from 12 studios, 36 micro-rooms, 51 desks, 25 benches — 124 positions at 60–90% occupancy | closed |
| C12 | Master conversion (2% of visits) unproven | 1.2% / 1.5% / 2.0% of 0.5–1.0M visits; membership is 14% of realistic revenue, down from 60% in the original case | open |
| C13 | Missing cost lines: insurance, tax share, security, tech amortisation, floor staff | Added as fixed opex ($1.1–1.6M) and a heavier building-opex rate; table cost of delivery lifted to 40% | closed |
| 5-A | Marketing and Stage programming need a budget line | 5–8% of gross | closed |
| 5-E | A 10% sponsor royalty on gross recreates Simon's free anchor space | Realistic: 10% of net media + membership, capped at $600K. Pessimistic keeps it on gross, uncapped — and that is what kills the OpCo | kill threshold |
| 5-I | Replace $/sqft lines with an area-based model | Every line is positions × price × occupancy × days, on the Space & Capacity Model's own counts and areas | closed |
| 5-J | Proof-of-concept as a single LLC, no PEIT/TRS layer | Model is single-entity, pre-tax; landlord paid by revenue share, not equity in a PropCo | encoded |
| 5-L | Four systems scoped to the proof-of-concept | Integration CapEx $0.55–0.9M; digital-twin lockers carried at 1,001 units | encoded |
| Landlord floor | landlord-math left the floor guarantee blank | Removed by instruction on 2 Sep 2026; pure revenue share at 20–30% of NOI, benchmarked against a $10–15 lease alternative | decision |
| 7.3 | Keep the 50-location narrative outside the proof-of-concept | Rollout is a separate sheet and a separate section here, labelled long-range scenario | encoded |
Each location is a copy of the box above, opened on the schedule below and ramped on the same curve, with shared services and a platform G&A in place of the single-box overhead. Site selection follows the Location Framework in the Space & Capacity Model: Trader Joe's county footprint (661 stores, 42 states), Gen Z share, the conscious-consumer cluster, nonemployer-business density and Class B/C box stock; Track B scores the eight states without a Trader Joe's on the remaining criteria.
| Measure | Pessimistic 1·1·3·5·10 boxes / yr | Realistic 1·2·7·15·25 | Optimistic 1·3·11·25·60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Locations open at Y5 | 20 | 50 | 100 |
| Y5 portfolio gross revenue | $67.3M | $466.2M | $1.75B |
| Y5 portfolio EBITDA | ($14.0M) | $121.2M | $744.1M |
| Y5 EBITDA margin | -21% | 26% | 43% |
| Y5 EV on actual-year EBITDA × multiple | $0 | $848.5M | $6.70B |
| Y5 EV on stabilized run-rate × multiple | $0 | $1.66B | $10.66B |
| Y5 EV floor (Industrious $4M per unit) | $80.0M | $200.0M | $400.0M |
| Peak equity funding need | $427.3M | $107.4M | $4.6M |
| Cumulative cash at Y7 | ($427.3M) | $112.5M | $3.51B |
| Boxes needed for $1B EV | never on EBITDA | 31 | 10 |
| Boxes needed for $10B EV | never on EBITDA | 297 | 94 |
| First year stabilized EV ≥ $1B | not by Y7 | Y5 | Y3 |
| First year stabilized EV ≥ $10B | not by Y7 | not by Y7 | Y5 |
Illustrative allocation of the realistic 50 and optimistic 100 boxes across the first-pass metro pool. Circle area is the number of boxes; the first 31 in the realistic sequence — the unicorn threshold — are drawn in green. Track B metros appear only in the optimistic allocation.